Download e-book for kindle: A General Approach to Macroeconomic Policy by J. O. N. Perkins (auth.)

By J. O. N. Perkins (auth.)

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We shall see, on the basis of the results of other simulations reported below, that income tax cuts are much closer in their relative effects on prices to rises in government outlays than are other types of tax cuts - which might on that score be therefore expected to be even more markedly superior to government outlays than are cuts in income tax if the aim is to give a real stimulus with as little upward effect as possible on prices. But the policy prescriptions may vary in certain respects from one country to another.

In summary, then, this extensive evidence for the UK suggests that, if the aim is to provide a non-inflationary stimulus, cuts in VAT are the best, together with cuts in employers' national insurance contributions, even though both are assumed in these tests to be accompanied by an accommodating monetary policy. 4) is consistent with the ranking in the OECD results. 5). Only one of them, that for the rise in government outlays, is therefore broadly comparable to one of those reported above as being undertaken with the UK econometric models; and only those for (bond-financed) income tax cuts and those for rises in government outlays are directly comparable to simulations by the OECD.

For five of the countries this simulation does not appear to change appreciably the effect of government outlays on prices for a given effect on output. But for Japan and the US the upward effect on prices of a rise in government outlays (for a given effect on real output) is greater than in the simple model for those individual countries. Simulations for income tax cuts are not available for the interlinked model, and the results from a simulation with that model of a cut in short-term interest rates are not available on an exactly comparable basis to that for changes in government outlays.

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