By Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, Mickaël Berrebi
During the Nineties Francis Fukuyama introduced the top of historical past. The 2000s confirmed the way it is an phantasm to visualize a calm international with out conflict.
In this ebook the authors discover how six significant constraints are set to mend the trajectory of the worldwide economic climate. 3 of them are new: the getting older inhabitants, the failure of technical development, and the shortage of reductions. the opposite 3 were at paintings for it slow: the explosion of inequality, the mass move of actions from one finish of the realm to the opposite, and the unlimited financialization of economic climate. They recommend that like seismic job which depends upon strain among tectonic plates, the political and social tensions should be exacerbated within the coming years by way of those significant forces. They suggest that experts could be incapable of forestalling neither the date nor the depth of the arriving earthquakes, and ask the query: can we do something about those destiny shocks and the violence they're bound to reason?
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Extra info for A Violent World: Modern Threats to Economic Stability
Whether producing drought or floods, resulting from deforestation, desertification, pollution or climate change, the vagaries of rainfall are the origin of mass population movements. Between now and 2050, the number of so-called ecological migrants may reach 250 million. The key word here is conflict. Instability and disputes in the host countries, the countries of origin or within a region are all the result of the depletion of resources that were not abundant in the first place, overpopulation, lack of drinking water and sanitation conditions in which epidemics thrive.
8 billion without access to modern domestic fuel,30 electricity and petroleum products. How can the ‘Johannesburg equation’ be resolved in future decades by providing more energy for economic development to the poorest and fewer greenhouse gas emissions, all this in energy systems that are notorious for their inertia and inflexibility? Combined with increasing rarity, this should considerably increase geopolitical tensions. Oil and gas reserves are concentrated in thirty or so countries, most of which are risk-prone.
Hence the need to rethink work, education and the The Major Breakdown in Technical Progress 21 relationship with machines. We would therefore live less in a period of recession than in a technological torment, with a profound recasting of the labour market and a necessarily painful transition phase. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne22 have costed the effects. They mention the possibility that 47% of American jobs will be endangered. Jeffrey Sachs and Laurence Kotlikoff23 stress, even more worryingly, that in the case of an increase in productivity, future generations will be the first victims, since the replacement of workers by robots could redirect income from the workers to the owners of robots, most of whom being retirees.